Class: Junior Secondary School 2 (JSS 2 / JS2)
Term: Third Term
Week: 8
Age: 13 years
Duration: 45 minutes
Subject: Mathematics
Curriculum Theme: Mathematics
Previous Lesson: Statistics: Data Presentation in Ordered.
Topic: PROBABILITY
Subject Matter: Examples which illustrate the occurrence of chance events in everyday life, Determining the probability of certain events: Application of probability in everyday life

Specific Objectives

By the end of the lesson, pupils should be able to:

Cognitive Domain:

Define probability.
Identify examples of chance events in everyday life.
State the formula for calculating the probability of an event.

Affective Domain:

Appreciate the importance of probability in real-life situations.
Show interest in solving problems involving probability.

Psychomotor Domain:

Calculate the probability of simple events.
Apply the concept of probability to solve everyday problems.

Participate actively in class discussions on probability.
Work collaboratively to solve probability problems.

Reference Materials

The following resources were used in planning this lesson:

9 Years Basic Education Curriculum for Junior Secondary Schools.
State Unified Scheme of Work.
New General Mathematics for Junior Secondary Schools 2.
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability.html
https://www.britannica.com/science/probability

Instructional Materials

The teacher will teach this lesson with the aid of:

Coins
Dice
Playing cards
Charts showing probability examples

Rationale for the Lesson

This lesson helps pupils understand how likely certain events are to happen. It enables them to make better predictions and decisions by applying basic probability concepts to everyday situations, from games to weather forecasts.

Prerequisite/Previous Knowledge

Pupils are expected to have prior knowledge of fractions, ratios, and simple arithmetic operations.

Lesson Content/Board Summary

PROBABILITY

Introduction to Probability

Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. It is expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 means the event is impossible and 1 means the event is certain to happen.

The following are examples of chance events in everyday life:

Tossing a coin and getting a head or a tail.
Rolling a die and getting a particular number.
The weather forecast predicting rain tomorrow.
Drawing a specific card from a deck of cards.
Winning a lottery.

Formula for Calculating Probability

The probability of an event (P(Event)) is calculated using the formula:

P(Event) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)

Favourable outcomes: The specific outcomes we are interested in.
Possible outcomes: All the outcomes that can occur in an experiment.

Worked Examples

Example 1: Tossing a Coin

What is the probability of getting a Head when a fair coin is tossed?

Solution:

Step 1: Identify the total number of possible outcomes.

Possible outcomes (S) = {Head, Tail}
Total number of possible outcomes = 2

Step 2: Identify the number of favourable outcomes.

Favourable outcome (getting a Head) = {Head}
Number of favourable outcomes = 1

Step 3: Apply the probability formula.

P(Head) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)
P(Head) = 1/2

Example 2: Rolling a Die

What is the probability of rolling an even number when a fair six-sided die is rolled?

Solution:

Step 1: Identify the total number of possible outcomes.

Possible outcomes (S) = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
Total number of possible outcomes = 6

Step 2: Identify the number of favourable outcomes.

Favourable outcomes (getting an even number) = {2, 4, 6}
Number of favourable outcomes = 3

Step 3: Apply the probability formula.

P(Even number) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes)
P(Even number) = 3/6

Step 4: Simplify the fraction.

P(Even number) = 1/2

Application of Probability in Everyday Life

Probability is used in various aspects of daily life, including:

Weather Forecasting: Meteorologists use probability to predict the chance of rain, sunshine, or storms.
Games and Gambling: Probability helps determine the odds of winning in card games, dice games, and lotteries.
Insurance: Insurance companies use probability to assess risks and set premiums.
Sports: Coaches and analysts use probability to predict team performance and game outcomes.
Medical Diagnosis: Doctors use probability to assess the likelihood of a patient having a particular disease.

Teaching Methods/Instructional Techniques

Discussion, Lecture, Demonstration, Question and Answer, Visual Aids

Instructional Procedures

Step 1: Introduction

Time: 5 minutes
Teaching Skill: Set Induction
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher greets the pupils and asks them questions about events that might or might not happen, like “Will it rain today?” or “What is the chance of winning a game?”.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils respond by giving their opinions and discussing the likelihood of the events.
Learning Point: Pupils are introduced to the concept of chance and likelihood.

Step 2: Definition of Probability

Time: 8 minutes
Teaching Skill: Explanation
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher defines probability as the measure of how likely an event is to occur and explains that it is expressed as a number between 0 and 1.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils listen attentively, copy the definition, and ask questions for clarification.
Learning Point: Pupils understand the meaning of probability.

Step 3: Chance Events in Everyday Life

Time: 7 minutes
Teaching Skill: Discussion/Illustration
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher discusses various examples of chance events from everyday life, such as tossing a coin, rolling a die, or weather predictions, using instructional materials.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils identify and contribute their own examples of chance events.
Learning Point: Pupils identify real-world examples of events involving chance.

Step 4: Probability Formula

Time: 7 minutes
Teaching Skill: Explanation/Formula Presentation
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher introduces the formula for calculating probability: P(Event) = (Number of favourable outcomes) / (Total number of possible outcomes), explaining each term.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils copy the formula and the explanation of its terms into their notebooks.
Learning Point: Pupils learn the formula for calculating probability.

Step 5: Worked Examples

Time: 8 minutes
Teaching Skill: Demonstration/Problem Solving
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher solves the worked examples (tossing a coin, rolling a die) on the board, explaining each step clearly.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils observe the steps, ask questions, and solve the examples in their notebooks.
Learning Point: Pupils learn how to apply the probability formula to solve problems.

Step 6: Application in Everyday Life

Time: 5 minutes
Teaching Skill: Discussion
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher leads a discussion on how probability is applied in various real-life scenarios like weather forecasting, insurance, and games.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils contribute ideas and discuss the practical uses of probability.
Learning Point: Pupils understand the relevance of probability in everyday life.

Step 7: Evaluation/Review

Time: 5 minutes

Teaching Skill: Questioning/Assessment

Teacher’s Activity: The teacher evaluates the learning by asking the following questions:

Define probability in your own words.
Give two examples of chance events you encounter daily.
State the formula for calculating the probability of an event.
A bag contains 5 red balls and 3 blue balls. What is the probability of picking a blue ball?

Pupils’ Activity: Pupils answer orally and in writing.

Learning Point: Pupils demonstrate understanding of the lesson.

Step 8: Conclusion

Time: 2 minutes
Teaching Skill: Summarization
Teacher’s Activity: The teacher summarizes the key points of the lesson and assigns homework, which includes solving additional probability problems.
Pupils’ Activity: Pupils listen to the summary and copy the homework assignment.
Learning Point: Pupils reinforce their understanding and practice problem-solving.

Lesson Keywords

Probability – The measure of how likely an event is to occur.
Chance Event – An event whose outcome is uncertain.
Outcome – A possible result of an experiment or event.
Favourable Outcome – The specific outcome(s) we are interested in.
Possible Outcome – All the outcomes that can occur in an experiment.

Differentiation

For struggling learners, the teacher will provide simpler examples and more direct guidance, perhaps using visual aids like counters. Advanced learners will be given more complex probability problems involving multiple events or scenarios to challenge their understanding and encourage independent problem-solving.

Note for teachers using this lesson plan

Encourage pupils to brainstorm real-life examples of probability to make the topic more relatable. Use physical objects like coins and dice for demonstrations to enhance understanding. Emphasize the importance of simplifying fractions in probability answers. Provide ample practice problems for homework to consolidate learning.